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Armstrong: April Turn, Goldman Conspiracies, and Life Behind Prison 1

Martin Armstrong has somewhat of a cult-like status in internet forums, likely fanned by the fact that he has spent more years in prison for contempt of court than he would have had he actually been convicted of the securities crime he was originally charged with.

Some consider him to be one of the greatest economic minds of our time. His Economic Confidence Model has been used to predict market turns, in some cases, to the day; but, rather than receiving a Nobel prize for it, he is relegated to recording his thoughts on a type writer and releasing weekly newsletters from prison.

His latest newsletters, “Behind The Curtain” (April 9th) and “Destroying Capital Formation” (March 23), are provided for those interested in his unique take on the unfolding drama; mind you, some dismiss his work as “hand-typed booklets with crude illustrations and Unnecessarily Capitalized Letters that float around in conspiracy theorist circles” – needless to say, buyer beware.

Nonetheless, his dates are watched by many: even if the outcomes are miss-forecasted, the dates do typically represent an inflection point. The latest turn from The Forecaster You Cannot Ignore is fast approaching this Sunday and would coincide with the top that others are forecasting for the recent market rally:

The earliest turning point appears to be April 2009. Yes, we have the half-cycle turning point for April 19th, 2009. Usually the half-cycle targets do not produce major events. There have been some exceptions such as 19878 produced the precise low for the crash on October 19, 1987. If that were to produce a reaction high, then we may see the market turn south for a low in July 2009 on an intra-day perspective. The key weekly target seems to be the week of July 5th, 2009. A simple Breakline on the monthly chart places the ideal technical support at around 4200 for July.

As a point of reference, the DOW closed today at 8029.62.

On a somewhat lighter note, one of the changes he has consistently pushed for is abolishing personal income tax (while the excerpt below is from an older letter, the principle is echoed again in his recent pieces as well):

Stop the Marxism! We need to return to basics. End the income tax & replace it with a 10% National Sales Tax (excluding raw food & basic clothing) that also include real estate. China has boomed because it had no income tax! This is what the men who established this nation established until Marxism began with the passage of the income tax only for the rich in 1909, that now applies to everyone. Stop borrowing money from the poorest with no interest masking it as a “refund” check confusing them to make it appear as a gift. Do this, and we will re-establish jobs in America and it will matter not if someone is an illegal alien or not for they will still pay their fair share. We are losing jobs because of high taxes and high heathcare costs that just make it cheaper to set up service oriented jobs in India, Philippines, or Mexico. It is time the BOO pound gorilla lost a little weight. This will create a offsetting economic boom that will save the nation.

Criminal or genius, one thing is certain: the almost violent upward swing of late remains nothing more than a bear-market rally. Headlines quick to hang the Mission Accompolished banner need to be approached very cautiously.

  • David Latimer

    Nariman, I find it difficult to get a handle on your post. Many statements seem to be thrown out there without substantiation. If I don’t know Martin Armstrong (which I don’t), I don’t just accept at face value that he has a “cult-like status” or that “some consider him to be one of the greatest economic minds of our time.” So, I need a little more proof or examples of his greatness. I also think there wasn’t much context for his thoughts on which dates are important. Why are they important? What methodology does he use? Technical analysis? Tea leaves? Why are his thoughts on tax policy important and what are the implications of eliminating income tax? Does something else replace all that government revenue or are we each responsible for our own healthcare? Finally, again, I think it is too presumptuous to say it is “certain” that the recent upswing in the market is “nothing but a bear rally.” While it may be, I think it’s far from certain or universally agreed upon.