Thursday, January 29, 2009

Recession Ready? Interview with Wisconsin Plant Manager

With the waning economy and the deteriorating US Auto Industry, The Urban Country interviewed Wisconsin Plant Manager Barry Schwartz to see how average Americans are dealing with the recession.

What is your job title and your role?

Plant Manager. We are a small plant so I do all production scheduling as well being involved in all operations of the plant.

How long have you been running this plant?

I have been running this plant for 5 years.

What does your plant produce?

We produce brake drums and rotors for cars and light trucks. These parts are strictly for the aftermarket industry.

How many workers do you employ?

We currently employ 34 people.

How has the number of workers fluctuated since you first took over the plant?

The number was about 70 when I started and has been as low as 15.

What trends have you been seeing with respect to domestic companies moving production overseas?

In our business we have seen most of our competitors change to overseas products the last 15 years. Our company stayed mostly in North America until about 5 years ago. We sold our product at a higher price, based on it being a premium product, but eventually the consumers gravitated toward low cost product as the quality improved sufficiently over the years. Our company makes other automotive products as well, and have built or purchased a number of manufacturing plants worldwide. Other products are brake pads, filters, etc. The move to overseas is not strictly to take work away from North America, but to expand into the world market. The drum/rotor business that I am in is 99% gone from North America but the other product lines are not that far gone, yet. In my division of the company, in North America, they have closed 6 out of the 7 plants. In another division that I previously worked they have closed or are closing 5 out of 7 plants. There have been other plants closed in other divisions as well.

How have you been able to stay competitive?

My plant is not competitive with foreign suppliers on high volume parts, but we are competitive with low volume parts that are hard to get. To be competitive, we have a small management staff so there aren't layers of non value-added positions. The supervisors and production employees work together. There is no 'this is my job' stuff. The supervisors do set ups on the machines so the hourly people can move to a different line and keep making product. We work with our casting supplier who is next door to us on cost reductions. We have brought a few parts back from overseas by doing these reductions.

How are your workers handling the uncertainty with their jobs and their future?

Businesses in our area are closing every day, so they are very concerned with their future. Our plant was targeted to be closed a couple of years ago, but we survived. However, that has left everyone very concerned that a decision could be reversed anytime. The only thing I can do to calm their fears is to be honest and give them company updates and my opinions continuously. If I tell them nothing, then they start to think the worst.

What types of changes have you seen in your workers lifestyle since the sky started falling?

I find that most employees come to me for my opinion, before they buy something big, such as a vehicle or a house or renovations. We have many more motorcycles than ever in the parking lot during the good weather months. They are putting in wood or pellet stoves to reduce heat costs. A number of them have re-financed their homes since the mortgage rates went down. Unfortunately, sometimes that is to be able to buy a large ticket item. They still do their hunting and fishing and take vacations, but I think they stay closer to home than before. Also, some people don't care and haven't changed at all, but there aren't many like that.

Is it important for your plant for the US auto companies to get a government bailout?

Since we got out of the OE business, the bailout of the auto companies isn't that important, although I think it would hurt us somewhat. We make aftermarket product for all makes of cars and trucks. By the way, our customers are places like NAPA, Carquest, etc.

What are your tactics/strategies to get through this deep recession?

Our company has tasked all plants to reduce purchased goods by 15% this year. They have cut back company wide staffing by 10% (so far) and are working at ways to maintain cash flow. All wages have been frozen for at least 6 months. No more company matching for 401k. Incentives to employees to get physicals, etc. to stay healthy and help reduce health costs. Our company's health incentive program made USA Today on January 20th. Here at the plant we continue to work with our casting supplier on cost reductions. The best way to survive at the plant level is to get work from someone else so that we can at least have income to cover overhead and stay afloat.

What is the hardest thing you’ve ever had to do as a Plant Manager?

As a plant manager there are many decisions that are difficult. Having to decide how to keep a GM assembly line going when they found one of our parts faulty was very tough. However, all my life the toughest decision has always been telling someone that I no longer have a job for them. I have always gotten to know all my employees quite well as well as everything about their families. Therefore, if I have to let them go, I will be up all night long thinking about their family and how they will be affected by this decision.

If you won the lottery, what would you do to pass the time?

I am not a believer of lotteries, but if I was rich, I would travel a bit (mostly to sport events). I would probably like to somehow be a person who visits the elderly who have no one to talk to. I imagine there are Christian groups or some other groups who do this now, but I'm sure there aren't enough.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Hand Washing vs. Dishwashers

The other day I was challenged by my buddy George about whether Dishwashers are more harmful to the environment than washing dishes by hand.

My first instinct was that a full dishwasher would use less water than washing by hand because washing by hand seems inefficient since most people leave the water running and clean one dish at a time. He didn’t agree with me.

Fortunately there are other people out there who have taken the time to study which method is more efficient. As it turns out, we’re both right (sort of).

The best study I could find that addresses this question was completed by researchers at the University of Bonn in Germany. They measured 113 people in 7 European countries and concluded that the average consumption to clean 12 place settings of dishes was 103 litres of water, 2.5 kWh of energy, 35g of soap and 79 minutes of time.

They took this data and compared it to modern dishwashers in order to determine which method is more environmentally friendly. A modern dishwasher uses 15-22 litres of water for the same amount of dishes and 1 kWh to 2 kWh of energy and an average of 30g of soap.

In addition to these conclusions, the researchers also found there are 3 types of people when it comes to dishwashing:

  1. The “Super-Dishwasher”
    • This person makes an effort to ensure a good cleaning performance. Consequently this person does not try to be economical with water, energy nor detergent.
  2. The “Dish-Washing-Economizer”
    • This person is focused on consuming as little water, energy and detergent as possible.
  3. The “Carefree-Dish-Washer”
    • He/she does neither try to get a good job done nor does
      he/she seem that wasting water, energy or detergent is of any harm.

Even the most prudent hand washer will find it difficult to be as efficient as a modern dishwasher. But keep in mind that a dishwasher achieves its maximum efficiency when you run it with a full load. Rinsing your dishes before using the dishwasher could also cause the dishwasher to use more water than hand washing.

The study also doesn’t take into consideration the environmental impact of manufacturing or disposing of a dishwasher, but assuming you have a dishwasher already in your home and you need to choose between washing by hand or using the dishwasher, at least you know which method is more efficient (When used properly).

dishwasher

Image courtesy of “Latest Trends in Home Appliances

Friday, January 23, 2009

Being Dutch = Being Green?

Growing up with a Dutch Mother explains a lot about my principles of simple living and reducing waste. We knew how to make the most out of everything and throw away very little.

A recent e-mail forward from my Mom helps explain a lot about what living “green” is all about. I’ve extracted out all of the “environmentally-friendly” and “frugal” Dutch traits that I can relate to.

The theme of the e-mail is “You know you’re Dutch when…”

  • The temperature is so low in your house that 2 sweaters is a bare minimum if you want to be remotely warm.
  • Your favourite mustard comes in jars that can be reused as drinking glasses.
  • Your kitchen is filled with milk bags drying, waiting to be reused in the freezer.
  • Your fridge is always stocked with leftovers. Throw out food? Never!
  • You open the freezer and are excited to find a container of ice- cream, only to open it and discover it's full of homemade soup or stamppot
  • The most frequent phrase uttered growing up was "Turn off the lights!"
  • You were green before it was popular. Why recycle when you can just reuse!
  • You have a vegetable garden because there's no way you're paying that much for veggies at the grocery store.
  • You put a little water into the jar of tomato sauce and shake it to make sure you got it all out.
  • You have 100 roles of toilet paper in your house because they were on sale.
  • Everything is Do-It-Yourself - it's cheaper than hiring someone.
  • You've been known to recycle aluminum foil. And ziploc bags.
  • You collect coupons like they're going out of style.
  • You wash and reuse plastic cups and plastic cutlery
  • When you hear all the "new ways to save energy" you yawn and say "I've been doing that all my life!"

windmill

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Taxi Honk Calculator

A recent statistically inaccurate and socially irrelevant Urban Country study has found that clothing affects the number of honks received by a taxi driver on a typical 20-minute walk to work by a typical male urban professional.

Among other important findings, the Urban Country study concluded the following:

  • While wearing jeans, the urban professional will receive an average of 1 honk from taxi drivers on his 20-minute walk to work.
  • While sporting dress pants and “business casual” attire, the urban professional will receive an average of 3 honks on his commute.
  • While styling in a business suit, the urban professional will receive an average of 6 honks as well as he occasional “flash” from a passing car.
  • While wearing no pants, the urban professional will receive 2 date propositions, 1 lululemon gift certificate, and 3 indecent exposure fines.

businessman

Photo courtesy of ridiculous wealthymen.usThey have everything but you”

Monday, January 19, 2009

The Low-Salt Diet

I love winter in Canada. It’s my second favourite season of the year (next to the spring/summer/fall season that is). I love hockey, I love the snow, and nothing beats relaxing in a nice warm home with an ice cold beer on a cold winter day. Winter helps me appreciate warm weather. If I didn’t have winter, my summer wouldn’t be nearly as exciting and my long-john undergarments would go unused.

But one thing that really boils my blood is the amount of salt that gets dumped on sidewalks and roads. To me, salt (Sodium chloride) is unnecessary 80% of the time it is applied, and even when it is useful, people dump so much of it that it becomes more of an obstacle than it is helpful. In addition:

  • It’s horrible for the environment – It contaminates our soil and pollutes our rivers and lakes.
  • It’s very hard on pets – it’s not uncommon for my dog Mojo to start limping when she gets salt in her paws.
  • It ruins your shoes
  • It causes automobiles to prematurely rust

In a staff report from the City of Toronto in September 2007, the city reported it typically uses an 80:20 ratio of salt to sand in its sidewalk application. The City of Toronto dumps approximately 7,000 tonnes of salt on its sidewalks during an average winter.

On my typical winter commute (walk) to work, it’s not uncommon for me to encounter several 3-inch-thick piles of salt covering a couple square metres.

On February 8, 2005, RiverSides Stewardship Alliance, a non-profit organization dedicated to reduce pollution and improve river water quality released a report that highlights the impact that road salts are having on the environment. They called on the Government of Ontario to immediately dissolve Regulation 339, a regulatory exemption that protects the Ministry of Transportation from being subject to Ontario’s Environmental Protection Act.

Reports and studies on de-icing salt generally refer to cost as being the largest single impediment to shifting to a more environmentally-friendly option, but RiverSides points out that:

“Such accounting ignores the more than six billion dollar annual damage cost to built infrastructure in North America resulting from ongoing use of this corrosive substance and the negative impacts on the ecosystem”

There are a variety of more environmentally-friendly alternatives to using toxic, corrosive sodium chloride but this GreenLiving article suggests that of course the greenest option is to shovel quickly and use an icebreaker when necessary. The full RiverSides report provides this useful table to help the Government make better choices in the future:

de-icers

In my experience, shoveling snow is sufficient enough to keep sidewalks safe 80% of the time. For the remaining 20% of the time, if it’s absolutely necessary to use salt, I only ask that you use a lot less of it. As for the Government, writing your local representative is the best way to apply pressure to use less harmful materials for de-icing roadways.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Youth Gangs

After dropping off my “Big Brothers” brother Quenelle off at the subway station this evening, I was riding home on a bus when I came across a group of 6 kids who all appeared to be aged between 9 and 12 years old. Based on their attire, conversations and lingo, an observer would conclude that these kids probably belong to a gang; or perhaps they were just playing themselves up as "Gangsters”.

It really made me think about why kids would take that path in life. Quenelle is the same age as those kids, yet he is so different than them. I think it really depends on how you were raised, and who you associate yourself with at school that determines the probability of whether you will end up as a member of a gang.

But then I pondered what benefits you would get from belonging to a gang. I think joining a gang would be difficult to turn down if you grow up in an area where most kids you know belong to a gang. Joining a gang offers a similar benefit to becoming educated.

By joining a gang you are gaining knowledge, power, opportunities and a sense of belonging. Members attain vast knowledge from their fellow gang members (though most of it probably related to illegal activities). The kids on the bus talked as if they knew every detail about the Police Division we passed on the bus as well as names of officers who belong to that detachment.

By attaining knowledge, you also gain power within your locale of society, and opportunities are then generated with that knowledge and power. In most cases, the opportunities presented by belonging to a gang is more lucrative than the opportunities provided by more legit means. One of the other perks is the opportunity to greatly expand your network of contacts. That’s not something you can get as easily working at McDonalds.

But being in a gang isn’t as attractive as it sounds; many gang members will spend time in jail, and it’s not uncommon for members to get murdered. So why do they still do it? Because everyone around them is doing it, so it’s a way to feel like they belong to something.

Youth gangs are a problem in our society and I think youth programs are extremely important to educate kids and give them alternatives to joining gangs. Organized sports provide kids with an alternate choice as well as a sense of belonging. Youth programs where ex-gang members speak to younger kids are great, as are programs such as Kids Help Phone and Big Brothers.

The Toronto Police recently ran a program where gun owners could anonymously give up a gun and receive a brand new digital camera in exchange for their gun. They received over 1000 guns in this program which to me is a success, whether those guns were legit or not.

This may sound a bit cliché, but kids do hold the key to the future and it’s important that they are given opportunities to break away from being sucked into illegal activities that can only be detrimental to themselves, the community, the country and the world.

bullets

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Dear President Bush...

As the end of your term in office approaches, you are now beginning to reflect on your leadership through one of the most controversial presidencies of all time. The last 8 years will forever change the world and the future of the United States.

In your bid to win the Presidency back in 2000, you had a modest platform of lowering taxes, larger military spending and education reform. Your presidency wasn't without successes; you successfully lowered taxes for all Americans in old "Regan" fashion with one of the largest tax cuts in American History and you increased aid to Africa to record levels. Your education reform had some limited success under the “No Child Left Behind” Act.

You presided through some of the largest corporate scandals in the history of the world as we know it, including Enron, WorldCom, and more recently the wave of banking collapses on Wall Street. Your WhiteHouse.gov tax plan sums up some of the principles behind these scandals that you have presided over:

"President Bush also understands that, over the long run, wealth is created by hard-working, risk-taking individuals, not government programs. Countries with low taxes, limited regulation, and open trade grow faster, create more jobs, and enjoy higher standards of living than countries with bigger, more centralized governments and higher taxes. The United States has led the way in economic performance over the last century because America is a freer country. If people are given the freedom to create, they do. If people are given a stake in the outcome, they succeed."

This narrow view of the world simplistically equates wealth to “high standard of living” and ignores the real components of a truly high standard of living; environment, family, friends and the simple things that money can’t buy. It highlights all that is fundamentally wrong about America and the artificial material happiness and greed that your Government has directly promoted.

In 2001 you brought the country together after the September 11th attacks and won the hearts and minds of many Americans. You vowed revenge on those responsible for the attack and you incited a feeling of resolve in your fellow Americans.

But you abused that power and trust that your people had given you and in 2003 you lied to those same people to achieve the goals of a small group of Washington elites promoted by your right-hand-man Dick Cheney. Many of those who pushed you to go to war have since left the government, leaving you to take the sole blame, although they are as much to blame as you for their failures.

Your decision to fight 2 simultaneous wars in the Middle East played right into Osama bin Laden’s hand. With the memories of driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan fresh in his mind, Osama’s dream was to pull the US into a costly war that cannot be won.

With your USA Patriot Act passed in October 2001, you violated the most basic rights of your own citizens in the name of fighting terrorism. You tortured suspected militants in the Abu Ghraib jail in Iraq, and you’ve held prisoners of war in Guantanamo Bay for several years without charges and without trials. Your government has used an ”extraordinary rendition” program to secretly transport suspected militants to CIA “black site” prisons around the world with no oversight and zero human rights.

Your terrible handling of a natural disaster in New Orleans was a cause of resentment for the families of those who unnecessarily perished days after the hurricane hit. Not to mention your hiring of an inexperienced friend to be the head of life-saving agency FEMA.

On the environment, your country has made some achievements in increasing its capacity to generate sustainable wind power, although rolling back your father’s legislation to ban offshore drilling wasn’t a win for the earth. Toronto writer Lloyd Alter suggested that you might perhaps be a “Closet Green” because of measures you have taken to reduce your footprint at your Crawford Ranch including a 25,000 gallon rainwater collection tank for reusing rainwater and preventing erosion.

Nobody can argue that you have taken very bold measures as President; for good and for bad. But with 8 years of hindsight, the lowest approval ratings in history, a collapsing economy, a big Washington government, 2 wars, record debt levels, and a shrinking middle class, few can argue that the good has outweighed the bad.

Sincerely,

 

James D. Schwartz @ The Urban Country

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Most Bizarre Google Searches: 2008 edition

Back in December 2004 I posted a list of the top 10 most bizarre Google searches that led to my site. I thought I would post another list for 2008's most bizarre searches. Here’s the top 20 as chosen by yours truly:
  1. chubby asian kid
  2. best crotch rocket
  3. what the total pages and ads in elle magazine
  4. “bobby rowe” musulmans
  5. “palestinian jew”+physical appearance
  6. “quack after 10pm”
  7. bible verse skin of bronze hair of wool jesus
  8. can i move my furniture from toronto to united states
  9. defecating in toilet
  10. do nascar drivers pee in their pants?
  11. don’t care about environment i want low gas prices
  12. ecquadorian instruments
  13. famous homeless people in toronto
  14. febreeze toronto
  15. friendly girl in toronto sucks
  16. holding pee while skydiving
  17. inspirational quotes for bus drivers
  18. is $200,000.00 per year a good salary in toronto
  19. stores that sell three headed dog in toronto
  20. what country is toronto mountains in

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Technology: The Good and the Bad

Last night we rented a movie. When returning the movie this morning on my way to see the dentist, I was reminded how technology has helped us avoid mundane time-consuming tasks.

Just one decade ago, I might have been late for my dentist appointment if I realized that the previous night I had forgotten to rewind the VHS tape.

But ever since DVDs became mainstream in the late 90's and early 2000's the tedious task of rewinding a tape was no longer necessary.

I consider this an example of a positive aspect of technological advancement. Ironically, the movie we rented last night was about the negative aspects of technological advancement. The movie is called Wall-E; it came recommended by Cousin Johnny in a comment on a past article and it highlights how people become lazy when they rely on technology too much.

I'm confident that humans are intelligent enough not to succumb to the form of extreme laziness illustrated in Wall-E, but the movie should indeed be a wake-up call for what could happen if we embrace technology for all of the wrong reasons.

In my opinion, we should be advancing technology to develop options for sustainable lifestyles instead of focusing on technology that simply makes us lazier.

Instead of trying to find a way to shoot our trash into outer space, we should be developing technology that helps to eliminate the creation of waste in the first place.

Unfortunately the application of technology in today's corporate world is often to eliminate jobs and increase shareholder value. Fortunately, all it takes is a movement by consumers to force the corporations to make better choices.

Whenever we go shopping, we always have a choice and the Internet is a great way for companies to communicate/prove their commitment to sustainable living.

photo-vhs

Saturday, January 03, 2009

My Utopian Career

Everyone around me knows how much I love my career. It's challenging, I'm constantly problem-solving, it's rewarding to see something I’ve built come to fruition, the jobs are relatively plentiful, and the industry pays well.

But what if I could have any job in the world? What would I choose to do?

Well I've put a lot of thought into this. At first the typical careers come to mind: I'd be a pilot, or own a restaurant. Sometimes I even think it would be fun to deliver mail by foot, or be a police officer on a bicycle or horse.

Then I start to think about what's important to me, and I think I would love to be a city planner from an environmental angle. Han's father does this in China. He researches other cities around the world and makes recommendations for his city about what type of transit systems to implement, how the infrastructure should be built in order to accommodate pedestrians and cars. In a developing city in China, this would be a great job. I would love to be able to have that kind of impact on a developing city's future.

A good way to narrow your list down is to first make a list of activities you love to do (work, school, reading, writing, kayaking, biking, etc.). Then rank each of these activities in order of personal importance.

When it comes down to it, the top 5 activities that are most important to me are the following (In order of importance): 1) Environment 2) Learning 3) Writing 4) Physical activity 5) Technology

If I could combine all 5 of those activities and make a career out of it, that would be my ideal career. So what would that career entail you ask? I'll tell you what that career would entail:

My ideal career would be writing full-time for The Urban Country. If I could earn a living from The Urban Country, I'd spend my 8-12 hours a day in the field researching for new stories. I'd follow around a homeless person for a week, work on a farm for a month, travel to New Guinea, kayak the St. Lawrence River, bicycle across China, research new environmentally-friendly methods of transportation in Japan, follow a prominent CEO around for a week. And I would write about all of these experiences.

It would be The Urban Country on steroids. The limited research I do for most of my current articles would turn into days of research and field work, combining my 5 most important activities (environment, learning, writing, physical activity and technology).

Being outside, meeting new people, learning and writing; what more could I ask for? With a little bit of determination and sacrifice, I could realistically achieve this goal in the next 5 years. Only time will tell.

Thursday, January 01, 2009

2009: The year of the Ox (Cow)

Welcome 2009! According to Chinese Astrology, 2009 is the year of the Ox (Cow) beginning on Chinese New Year, January 26, 2009:

"Pragmatic and down-to-earth, Ox people are motivated to work hard and have no respect for lazy or careless people. Although they can be easily trusted and find it easy to put trust in others, they are not dependent on friends and family and would rather find an answer or a solution themselves than to ask these people for help or guidance. However, others can, without a doubt rely on Oxen, who are always honest and meticulous about their responsibilities. While they do not feel the need for many distant or acquaintance-oriented friendships, they value the strong bonds they share with their partners and families, and make close friends that last a lifetime.”

Each year, I set out my resolutions and make some predictions for the year (See 2008, 2007, 2006). Although I achieved all of my 2008 resolutions, some of my 2008 predictions didn't come true; most notably Hillary Clinton didn't win the Democratic nomination. This year I'm going to spice it up a bit and provide the highlights of 2008 based on The Urban Country's top 15 blog categories:

Highlights of 2008:

  • Humour: Tina Fey's Sarah Palin impersonation on SNL
  • United States:The Collapse and bailout of major US banks while Lehman Brothers CEO earned close to half a billion dollars in salary and bonuses since 2000.
  • Toronto: NFL team Buffalo Bills sign a deal to play 8 games in Toronto
  • Environment: General Production began on March 17th, 2008 for the Tesla Roadster, the world's first production, all-electric sports car
  • War: Declining violence in Iraq, Georgia / Russia conflict, and Israel's recent attacks on Gaza
  • News: In May, a devastating Earthquake in China kills at least 70,000 people
  • Sports: 2008 Beijing Olympics: Usain Bolt's 3 Gold medals and 3 new world records, and Michael Phelps' 8 Gold medals and 7 world records
  • Travel: If it can be considered "travel", my kayak trip this summer was the highlight of the year for me.
  • Deep Thoughts: Ron Paul's statement to Ben Bernanke - Feb 27 2008
  • George W. Bush: Iraqi reporter throws his shoes at Bush
  • Terrorism: November terror attacks in Mumbai
  • Music: Discovering “The Airborne Toxic Event” and the collaboration between The Tragically Hip’s Gord Downie and Alexisonfire’s Dallas Green in the song “The Sleeping Sickness” by Green’s band City and Colour.
  • Canada: A coalition Government was formed in November causing the suspension of Parliament which has put Prime Minister Stephen Harper in a major pickle
  • Movies: My favourite movies in 2008 were "The Visitor" and "The Dark Knight"
  • Technology: The release of Microsoft Silverlight 2.0 was a major highlight for my work
Resolutions for 2009
  • Stay dedicated to my work to complete my current project successfully
  • Implement changes internally at imason to make a major impact on how we communicate
  • Run a minimum of once per week even throughout the winter
  • Go camping/kayaking up North more frequently in the summer with Han and Mojo
  • Keep things simple and try to eliminate anything unnecessary in my life
  • Make time for a 1-week, aggressive solo kayak trip this summer
  • Spend lots of time with friends and family
  • Achieve 5 credits towards my degree in 2009 to keep on track

Predictions for 2009

  • US Economy: The US Recession will continue to deepen throughout the year. Many experts who think we are near the bottom will be proven wrong. It won’t be until 2010 before the economy begins its recovery.
  • Canada’s Economy: Within 6 months, Canada will finally start to feel the impact of the US recession that we have so far been relatively shielded from. Many more layoffs will occur, many construction projects will halt.
  • Israel: Tension and violence between Hamas and Israel will continue to escalate. Israel and Hamas will eventually sign another ceasefire, but suicide attacks against Israel will rise in revenge for Israel’s raids.
  • Iraq/Afghanistan: Obama will stray away from his promise to remove troops from Iraq. Some troops will be transferred from Iraq to Afghanistan, but no major changes will happen in 2009 in either of these wars.
  • Pakistan: More deadly attacks will happen in Pakistan and another major terror attack will happen in India again. Tensions between Pakistan and India will rise but both sides will keep their cool and these countries will remain relatively stable through 2009.
  • Obama: As a result of the deep recession, Obama will back down from some of his campaign promises and by the end of 2009 many people will question whether he will bring the change he promised before the end of his first term.
  • Canada: When parliament resumes, Stephen Harper will make a deal with the coalition to avoid a coalition takeover or an election. Harper and his minority government will retain their shaky leadership throughout 2009.

2011 The Urban Country

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